Will Loot Boxes Survive the Rise of Subscription Models?

29 September 2025

If you’re into gaming, you’ve probably noticed how fast the industry is shifting. A decade ago, loot boxes were all the rage, offering players a shot at unlocking rare items via a randomized system. But now? Subscription models are making a major play to dominate the gaming scene. Game Pass, PlayStation Plus, EA Play—these services are shaking up the way we spend money on games.

So, here’s the big question: will loot boxes stay relevant in this new era? Or are they on their way to becoming relics of the past? Let’s dive into this hot topic and see what the future might hold.

What Are Loot Boxes, and Why Did Gamers Fall for Them?

Before we get into whether loot boxes are doomed, let’s take a quick trip down memory lane. Loot boxes are virtual treasure chests full of randomized goodies like skins, weapons, or characters. You pay real money (or grind in-game) to open them, but you never know what you’re going to get. It's a bit like gambling—except instead of cash prizes, you’re chasing a rare sniper skin or a legendary outfit for your avatar.

Why were they so popular? Simple: dopamine hits. Humans love surprises, and loot boxes exploit that perfectly. The thrill of getting something rare kept players hooked, even if the odds weren’t exactly in their favor. And let’s be real: companies loved loot boxes too. They raked in billions by capitalizing on FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and players’ competitive nature.

But here’s the thing: the love affair with loot boxes started to sour over time.

Why Loot Boxes Fell Out of Favor

Loot boxes didn’t just fade because gamers got bored. There’s a laundry list of reasons why they’ve been losing their shine.

1. The Legal Crackdown

Governments around the world began to take notice of how loot boxes mirrored gambling. Belgium outright banned them in 2018, calling them a form of unregulated betting. Other countries, like the UK and Australia, started investigating whether loot boxes exploit vulnerable players, especially kids. Once regulators got involved, many companies had to rethink their strategies.

2. Gamers Grew Wary

Let’s face it: loot boxes can feel exploitative. No one enjoys dropping $20 on boxes only to get duplicates of common junk. Plus, many players started realizing how developers locked desirable items behind paywalls instead of earning them through skill. This backlash has seen a growing demand for more straightforward ways to monetize games.

3. The Rise of Free-to-Play Without the Gimmicks

Titles like Fortnite and Apex Legends shifted the monetization landscape. These games ditched random loot boxes for battle passes and item shops where players can make direct purchases. Why gamble on a box when you can buy exactly what you want? The success of this model put more pressure on loot boxes to prove their worth.

Subscription Models: The New Kid on the Block

While loot boxes are fighting for survival, subscription services are having their moment. Think of them as Netflix, but for gaming. Instead of paying $60 for one game, you pay a flat monthly fee for access to a library of titles. Sounds like a pretty good deal, right?

1. How Subscriptions Are Changing the Game

Subscription services like Xbox Game Pass are appealing because they simplify everything. No more agonizing over whether that new AAA game is worth your hard-earned cash—you just download and play. It’s especially a lifesaver for budget-conscious players who want access to a variety of games without breaking the bank.

2. Why Gamers Love It

Gamers these days prioritize value and convenience. With a subscription, you’re not forced into microtransactions or random loot box rolls. Instead, you get a buffet of games to explore at your own pace. And the best part? Developers still profit through licensing deals with platforms like Game Pass.

3. How This Impacts In-Game Monetization

Here’s where things get interesting: if you’re already paying $10-$15 per month for a game service, are you really going to spend extra on loot boxes? Many gamers might see it as overkill. Why gamble when the subscription fee already gives you so much value? It’s a real dilemma for companies that have relied on loot box revenue.

Loot Boxes vs. Subscription Models: Can They Coexist?

So, does this mean loot boxes are dead? Not necessarily. Both monetization models have their pros and cons, and there’s still room for loot boxes, at least for now.

1. The Case for Loot Boxes

Loot boxes thrive in free-to-play games, where developers need a way to make money without charging upfront. For live-service games like FIFA or Genshin Impact, loot boxes still drive significant revenue. As long as there are whales (big spenders) willing to drop cash for the rarest items, loot boxes will have a place.

2. The Case for Subscriptions

On the flip side, subscription models cater to a broader audience. They’re great for casual players who don’t want to invest heavily in a single game. Plus, with indie and AAA games being featured on services like Game Pass, players can discover a variety of experiences for a fraction of the cost.

3. The Middle Ground

Some developers might try to combine the two models. Imagine a subscription service that also offers exclusive loot boxes or discounts on in-game purchases. It’s a way to have their cake and eat it too. Whether or not this hybrid approach will succeed remains to be seen.

The Future of Gaming Monetization

The gaming industry is in a transitional phase. Loot boxes are no longer the untouchable cash cows they once were, but subscriptions haven’t fully replaced them yet. Instead, the monetization ecosystem is diversifying. Battle passes, item shops, and subscriptions are all competing for players’ wallets.

What’s clear is that gamers are demanding more transparency and value. Whether it’s paying for a battle pass in Call of Duty or subscribing to Game Pass, the days of blindly gambling on loot boxes might be numbered.

Final Thoughts: Will Loot Boxes Survive?

So, will loot boxes survive the rise of subscription models? Honestly, it’s complicated. They’re not dead yet, but they’re definitely not as dominant as they once were. Subscriptions have disrupted the market, offering an attractive alternative for players who are tired of random chance mechanics.

That said, loot boxes won’t vanish overnight. As long as developers can make money from them and players are willing to buy, they’ll stick around—at least in free-to-play games. But one thing is for sure: the gaming industry is evolving, and only the most adaptable monetization strategies will thrive in the long run.